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Prediction for CME (2021-05-22T16:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-05-22T16:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16946/-1
CME Note: Ejected material is seen in SDO AIA 193 and 304 after 05-22T15:21Z mostly to the West from AR 2824. ARRIVAL: Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: signatures of flux rope(s) between 05/26 ~ 18 hrs to 05/27 ~ 5:00 hrs, but it may be either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. First rotation Bz north for ~3 hrs starting after ~18 hr and then ~19 hrs another structure with SN rotation in Bz. The second one displays low solar wind temperature more consistent with the magnetic cloud/flux rope expected signatures. Note that bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression, so it seems that there is interaction.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-26T11:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-05-25T14:04Z (-4.8h, +8.3h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 98.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters.  This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model.  This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

## Summary:

BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.  

Ensemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2021-05-22T09:12:00-CME-001, 2021-05-22T16:09:00-CME-001, and 2021-05-22T22:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20210523-AL-001).Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact STEREO A and STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edges of the CMEs will reach:

- STEREO A between about 2021-05-25T17:15Z and 2021-05-25T23:05Z (average arrival 2021-05-25T20:22Z) for 31% of simulations.
- STEREO B between about 2021-05-25T20:48Z and 2021-05-26T05:44Z (average arrival 2021-05-26T01:51Z) for 97% of simulations.

Additionally the CMEs are estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-05-25T09:19Z and 2021-05-25T22:21Z (average arrival 2021-05-25T14:04Z) for 97% of simulations.  The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 88% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).

Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080_arrival_STA.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080_STA_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080_arrival_STB.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080_STB_stack.gif

## Notes:
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.

Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.

For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-05-24_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080/Detailed_results_20210522_091200_ncmes3_sims48_HILOX080.txt
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Lead Time: 36.47 hour(s)
Difference: 21.55 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2021-05-24T23:09Z

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